Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8acc6a809541e10dcb0fa3ed2e2af782a4c465a7c0e987ab3cba7de3bbf3e131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeb2…2e13backed Yes | 4c | 1,225$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbe…a158backed Yes | 2c | 1,128$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 5c | 870.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 66c | 672.17$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.34 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 34c | 664.92$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.88 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 287.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 58c | 258.61$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.31 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 19c | 245$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 5c | 214.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.81 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 207.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 75c | 199.27$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 165.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 163.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 159.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 48c | 157.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 153$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 8c | 152.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 10c | 151.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 149.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 147.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 137.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 111.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 12c | 110.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 23c | 108.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 97.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 35c | 84.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 77.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 72c | 73.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed Yes | 33c | 67.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 58c | 66.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 65.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…14c2backed Yes | 77c | 65.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 61.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 61.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 63c | 57.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 50.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 48.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 46.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 44.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 27c | 43.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 54c | 40.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 64c | 40.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 59c | 38.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 38.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 39c | 37.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 80c | 37.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…143dbacked Yes | 72c | 36.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 35.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 55c | 34.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…88babacked No | 72c | 31.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 46c | 29.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 29.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 28.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 56c | 27.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 26.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 52c | 21.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…6080backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 67c | 17.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 66c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 68c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.