Serie A · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a6c02e0ab44519e86c4b68388f58e533376ff33e3aefb776ecb664e3bbf1a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 6,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 4,341$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800.24 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 3,707$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.66 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…22a3backed Yes | 47c | 2,130$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed No | 58c | 2,130$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 62c | 2,088$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.04 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 54c | 1,760$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.92 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 74c | 1,596$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,340$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.4 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 1,278$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.94 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed No | 22c | 1,059$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 1,043$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.21 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 29c | 728.29$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.82 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 716.96$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.64 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 73c | 658.54$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.81 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 80c | 645.34$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 223 | 73.1%163 W · 60 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 24c | 623.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.52 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 74c | 589.87$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.37 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…785abacked Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 51c | 558.68$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.82 | 175 | 29.1%51 W · 124 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed No | 48c | 555.01$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Yes | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 443.23$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked No | 45c | 424.54$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.95 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Yes | 5c | 417.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 20c | 333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…c2eabacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e2…f97fbacked Yes | 35c | 287.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 46c | 281.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Yes | 55c | 268.03$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 62c | 263.63$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed No | 68c | 253.33$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Yes | 77c | 207.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.18 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.28per pick | 64cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…f350backed Yes | 34c | 195.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…c870backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…601abacked No | 74c | 156.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…6602backed Yes | 58c | 155.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…eff8backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Yes | 75c | 132.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9425…f025backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 74c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…7515backed Yes | 35c | 92.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d49…6727backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…0db6backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…29c7backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Yes | 32c | 72.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 27c | 65.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 207 | 41.5%86 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa45…0339backed Yes | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 63c | 55.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…5ea2backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 74c | 51.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes | 38c | 51.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…fafabacked Yes | 76c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 32c | 50.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…1326backed No | 75c | 50.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 74c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…d978backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Yes | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed No | 74c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Yes | 75c | 18.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e4…973ebacked Yes | 80c | 15.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.