Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a6ff8846c17f13272d80df829f215ed430235b5d697dbbe1695512a75d96231

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,649 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	69c	16,298$11,285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,013.12	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	22c	6,665$1,438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,437.73	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Over	34c	5,000$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,699.84	110	29.1%32 W · 78 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	55c	1,942$1,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$870.74	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab0e…4b76backed Over	34c	1,889$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.28	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	29cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	44c	1,765$782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.26	457	51.2%234 W · 223 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	48c	1,579$758 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$821.08	492	54.9%270 W · 222 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	51c	1,292$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.49	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	200	54.5%109 W · 91 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Over	51c	779.06$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.32	60	55%33 W · 27 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d94…40e6backed Over	33c	750$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.5	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	422	40.3%170 W · 252 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3893…6e0cbacked Over	51c	587.29$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.52	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	39c	550$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.9	614	41.2%253 W · 361 L	-27.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe398…4ce5backed Under	77c	519.74$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.74	25	60%15 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	72cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0d9…437fbacked Over	52c	516.99$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfde0…c21cbacked Over	47c	470$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.9	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	48c	444$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.88	215	48.8%105 W · 110 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Under	73c	409.17$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.17	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	52c	392.9$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.31	301	49.5%149 W · 152 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3b…5a53backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Under	56c	368.62$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.19	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	51c	310.54$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.62	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	50c	304$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	53c	295.52$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.77	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under	50c	290$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145	39	41%16 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over	52c	275$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	198	26.3%52 W · 146 L	-14.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	49c	242.18$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.13	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ef…cb71backed Over	52c	210.48$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.45	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+4.0wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb50a…3348backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadfe…8aaebacked Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	48c	172$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.44	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over	25c	160$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	89	25.8%23 W · 66 L	-5.0wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over	52c	144.23$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	59	22%13 W · 46 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7497…1dc4backed Under	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	61c	134.43$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.67	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Over	43c	130$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.6	282	46.1%130 W · 152 L	-12.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over	45c	120$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Over	45c	111.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	77	42.9%33 W · 44 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Under	70c	107.13$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc13f…ca64backed Under	70c	100.65$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.65	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Over	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-7.0wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	660	31.2%206 W · 454 L	-13.0wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5238…1bc0backed Over	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+64.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	136	56.6%77 W · 59 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	114	48.2%55 W · 59 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Over	51c	97.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	49c	94.08$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.97	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Under	50c	92$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	495	44.2%219 W · 276 L	-20.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over	52c	85.02$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.21	65	64.6%42 W · 23 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	206	44.7%92 W · 114 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	279	55.9%156 W · 123 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c97…874abacked Over	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	107	33.6%36 W · 71 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58a4…5e75backed Over	51c	62.55$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.9	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under	47c	59.99$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.79	420	48.6%204 W · 216 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…c10abacked Over	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x259e…765dbacked Over	36c	55.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	96	45.8%44 W · 52 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Under	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	103	42.7%44 W · 59 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa274…550fbacked Over	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x855b…8dd0backed Over	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-3.9wins	-0.16per pick	58cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Over	52c	48.07$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc687…e856backed Over	50c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.9wins	-0.22per pick	61cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	90	45.6%41 W · 49 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2886…0e62backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc8…8198backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	110	60.9%67 W · 43 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a77…d70abacked Over	44c	31.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under	48c	31$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.12	228	58.8%134 W · 94 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	556	54.9%305 W · 251 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55be…a73abacked Over	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	59cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Under	52c	29.61$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	132	49.2%65 W · 67 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Under	48c	28.85$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	269	59.9%161 W · 108 L	+13.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	158	66.5%105 W · 53 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	57c	27.64$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.96	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x499e…c968backed Over	51c	24.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Over	50c	23.52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	292	38.4%112 W · 180 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…91b8backed Over	52c	21.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6438…fadbbacked Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ed…09dabacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton: O/U 2.5this page
Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton: O/U 1.5Over won
Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Nottingham Forest (-1.5)Brighton won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event