TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

Murcia: Kimmer Coppejans vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kimmer Coppejansof Kimmer Coppejans, Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,107 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8df8…59ddbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly12c6,203$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73224438.9%95 W · 149 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly14c3,954$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.730225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kimmer Coppejans66c3,268$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.482,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Kimmer Coppejans51c2,954$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.249450%47 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly14c2,252$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.578331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kimmer Coppejans66c1,739$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.743,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly13c1,516$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20051933.1%172 W · 347 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly53c1,400$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.537,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly12c1,340$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8138739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly35c1,305$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.528,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly52c1,250$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Kimmer Coppejans61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39056757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly13c925.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12067836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly35c868.8$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.867,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly37c739.36$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.4532031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly48c734.31$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.134,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly40c725.64$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.241,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly43c711.7$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.6950731.2%158 W · 349 L-41.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly45c668.6$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8680938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea6…0890backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607724.7%19 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35b4…0f65backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly10c599.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.963625%9 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly55c596.68$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2928726.8%77 W · 210 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7896…c2ffbacked Kimmer Coppejans59c591.98$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.989453.2%50 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly15c535$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.251,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa24…b2b4backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly40c499.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.97549.3%37 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c490$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1320336%73 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly21c480$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.861924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68af…ca81backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly18c475.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6221720.3%44 W · 173 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068a…6fe7backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly11c433.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.366852.9%36 W · 32 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly9c406.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5420847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd785…0d7ebacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly34c385.67$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13242558.8%250 W · 175 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Kimmer Coppejans65c342$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6473745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly9c320.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.871,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly38c305.73$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.671,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Kimmer Coppejans47c297.87$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8729637.5%111 W · 185 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Kimmer Coppejans55c270.71$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.821,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Kimmer Coppejans60c267$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.81,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c254.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024638.2%94 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x319e…de42backed Kimmer Coppejans61c247.44$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4416552.1%86 W · 79 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b92…b96bbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly23c208.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484645.7%21 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+41.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly12c190.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.841,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Kimmer Coppejans58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4157349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly29c171.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.629,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Kimmer Coppejans61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.932,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Kimmer Coppejans62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1838268.1%260 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly25c159.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.34,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c154$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0670729.1%206 W · 501 L+0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly20c153$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1669249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Kimmer Coppejans60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6027344.7%122 W · 151 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c146.69$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.217,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly29c134.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6236333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked Kimmer Coppejans61c131.15$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1517859%105 W · 73 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly27c108.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.993,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8a4d…71c6backed Kimmer Coppejans47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.387859%46 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly27c105$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1497046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c102$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7822847.4%108 W · 120 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c102$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7827246.3%126 W · 146 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Kimmer Coppejans73c101.59$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5952457.4%301 W · 223 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Kimmer Coppejans54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4651539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Kimmer Coppejans60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4030452%158 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a5c…d123backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly42c95.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408974.2%66 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Kimmer Coppejans77c84.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.236,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked Kimmer Coppejans61c81.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9753457.7%308 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c75.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4255660.3%335 W · 221 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kimmer Coppejans47c74.17$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.276,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Kimmer Coppejans55c72.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5648453.7%260 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x750d…566bbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly26c68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9216356.4%92 W · 71 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1309…8d93backed Kimmer Coppejans64c67.03$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.131963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…3c70backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly20c66.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.231566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c65.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.242,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c3…079fbacked Kimmer Coppejans60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2489364.4%575 W · 318 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf9…be26backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly50c57.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9843062.3%268 W · 162 L-0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Kimmer Coppejans69c56.36$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4742358.6%248 W · 175 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c52.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5923750.6%120 W · 117 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8929244.5%130 W · 162 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Kimmer Coppejans59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8590854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebd1…1e86backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly25c50.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56923.2%16 W · 53 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Kimmer Coppejans61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1832649.1%160 W · 166 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed Kimmer Coppejans55c48.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.973545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c44.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2854434.2%186 W · 358 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Kimmer Coppejans73c39.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4965264.1%418 W · 234 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50f6…b8c6backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013338.3%51 W · 82 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly38c37.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9838460.4%232 W · 152 L+29.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2a7…3576backed Kimmer Coppejans62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.315258.6%89 W · 63 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff95…3c1cbacked Kimmer Coppejans70c34.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.385158.8%30 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Kimmer Coppejans50c29.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1530844.5%137 W · 171 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly40c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.260240.5%244 W · 358 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1951…7542backed Kimmer Coppejans60c27.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.87566.7%50 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee16…16a2backed Kimmer Coppejans75c26.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.54862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly39c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1490340.2%363 W · 540 L+4.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4378…5bb8backed Kimmer Coppejans54c24.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.210363.1%65 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6249…cee9backed Kimmer Coppejans73c23.59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3712057.5%69 W · 51 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Kimmer Coppejans60c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1872…bcabbacked Kimmer Coppejans60c16.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.678658.1%50 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.