Movies · resolved market
Will "Kidnapped: Elizabeth Smart" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a9f1a5d01f6bdb6237dd2f2c64befa42567f128691b870ba8c6ecd0597ff79d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 44c | 1,915$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.58 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…68bebacked Yes | 62c | 1,816$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked No | 6c | 1,664$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,181$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.51 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 3c | 1,173$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…c8dcbacked No | 26c | 529$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 54c | 500$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.62 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 16c | 466$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1003…5154backed No | 22c | 444.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 7c | 346.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 15c | 277$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 29c | 255.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 8c | 209.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 165.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed No | 75c | 145.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 119.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 51c | 111.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed No | 13c | 110.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked No | 22c | 104.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 89.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 18c | 85.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 73.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 39c | 67.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 32c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 37c | 48.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 30c | 43.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…19f1backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b75cbacked Yes | 52c | 28.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…cb03backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Kidnapped: Elizabeth Smart" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)this page
- Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
- Will "The Rip" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.