Us Politics · resolved market
Trump announces buffer zone on Mexico border before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aa21fda5f5f99cc8ccc5bdde53df8700b85e0dd716cd227cb1c420cd97ac10c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 2c | 17,149$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.46 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 0c | 5,323$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 2c | 1,739$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 59c | 590.6$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 3c | 571.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.94 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 548$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked No | 74c | 302.7$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 67c | 294.32$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 5c | 288.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.78 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…00fdbacked Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81c6…b0b1backed No | 74c | 146$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 70c | 124.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…3111backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 77c | 25.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 77c | 23.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcc…6384backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.