TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dplus KIAof Gen.G, Dplus KIA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$237,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$284,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,054 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e5e…7315backed Dplus KIA49c28,644$13,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,700.7512840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Gen.G51c21,501$10,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,965.5112664.3%81 W · 45 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked Dplus KIA49c21,240$10,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,851.617954.7%98 W · 81 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Gen.G51c19,600$9,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,995.9613846.4%64 W · 74 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Dplus KIA49c15,268$7,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,786.7753750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Gen.G49c11,010$5,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,430.8217844.4%79 W · 99 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed Dplus KIA49c10,472$5,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,355.6716645.8%76 W · 90 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4074…ea32backed Gen.G51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516a…a2edbacked Gen.G52c7,716$4,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,011.093030%9 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Dplus KIA53c6,000$3,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,822.1392254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Gen.G52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12030044%132 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed Gen.G49c5,592$2,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,721.4923645.3%107 W · 129 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Gen.G23c5,222$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.970641.5%293 W · 413 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed Gen.G51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55010449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad1…9198backed Gen.G50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5007051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Gen.G52c4,038$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.2360053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6f…6c5cbacked Gen.G51c3,900$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00015443.5%67 W · 87 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca9…02e1backed Dplus KIA51c3,529$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.811241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Dplus KIA48c3,500$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.9959854.2%324 W · 274 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Gen.G52c3,192$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65010846.3%50 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed Dplus KIA48c3,125$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6257143.7%31 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Gen.G52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9946257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5de…cabebacked Dplus KIA50c2,735$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35719336.3%70 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Dplus KIA56c2,489$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.8234351.3%176 W · 167 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Dplus KIA51c2,226$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.311,14338.8%444 W · 699 L-46.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Gen.G51c2,222$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.2238640.4%156 W · 230 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd76b…e9d5backed Gen.G52c2,122$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.555349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Dplus KIA51c2,111$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.846450.6%235 W · 229 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Dplus KIA49c2,053$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.0659658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Gen.G50c2,025$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.4422850.9%116 W · 112 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Gen.G51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.1547455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Gen.G52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.995851.7%30 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Gen.G53c1,979$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.6221754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd12c…ed3dbacked Gen.G51c1,943$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012649.2%62 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Dplus KIA52c1,935$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.4514949%73 W · 76 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed Gen.G51c1,904$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98018547%87 W · 98 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Gen.G52c1,880$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.5318247.3%86 W · 96 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa11…e3c0backed Gen.G52c1,695$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.187335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Gen.G52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7802,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Dplus KIA51c1,355$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.6537643.1%162 W · 214 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Dplus KIA50c1,353$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.9565544.1%289 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dff…7fecbacked Gen.G61c1,320$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.95427.8%15 W · 39 L-8.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-35.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Gen.G52c1,318$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.1916150.9%82 W · 79 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Gen.G38c1,306$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.4285746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0072…88b6backed Dplus KIA50c1,269$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.613652.8%19 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-8.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Dplus KIA65c1,227$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.31,00454.5%547 W · 457 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Dplus KIA48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62442042.4%178 W · 242 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Dplus KIA50c1,196$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.851256.1%287 W · 225 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Gen.G52c1,082$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.21,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Dplus KIA48c1,021$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.6235742.9%153 W · 204 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Gen.G51c1,000$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5058447.6%40 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed Gen.G52c999.92$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9621154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Dplus KIA50c987.89$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.1134340.5%139 W · 204 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Gen.G51c962.44$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.1411540.9%47 W · 68 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Gen.G26c913.54$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5714338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde41…58bdbacked Dplus KIA48c892.48$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.094665.2%30 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+33.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Dplus KIA47c800$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42190350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Gen.G51c788.99$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.3964849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Dplus KIA48c788.01$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.7759548.2%287 W · 308 L+15.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Gen.G51c784.79$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.362,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Gen.G50c709.39$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.7430447.4%144 W · 160 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Dplus KIA49c687.93$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.841,61148.4%780 W · 831 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Gen.G51c681.47$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.5511037.3%41 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed Dplus KIA48c677.38$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.4613836.2%50 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c65…4f24backed Gen.G52c650$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3387657.9%44 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked Dplus KIA48c607.13$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.717847.4%37 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ed8…7559backed Dplus KIA50c600.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.029844.9%44 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c74…5383backed Gen.G50c599.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019741.1%81 W · 116 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Gen.G51c599.77$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.8879745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Dplus KIA50c596.98$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.4921751.2%111 W · 106 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0079…a306backed Gen.G51c593.13$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Gen.G50c572.54$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.277451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Gen.G50c512$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25622748%109 W · 118 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked Gen.G51c508.01$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.838253.7%44 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Dplus KIA48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26076953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c80…6ff1backed Gen.G52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ab…5315backed Gen.G50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4f3…3bbebacked Gen.G52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Dplus KIA47c499.98$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.9948947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Dplus KIA48c494.18$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.977142.3%30 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb627…2d13backed Gen.G52c491.46$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5651952.4%272 W · 247 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed Gen.G52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270c…f66fbacked Gen.G6c443.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.44660%0 W · 66 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…b953backed Gen.G31c440.2$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.264228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54c4…caaebacked Gen.G52c428.37$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.7520045%90 W · 110 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Gen.G31c410$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.658042.4%246 W · 334 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed Dplus KIA50c400.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.4716654.2%90 W · 76 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Dplus KIA49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20417439.1%68 W · 106 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Dplus KIA50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20039541.3%163 W · 232 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Dplus KIA50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2006653%35 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e78…fb29backed Dplus KIA50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20015959.1%94 W · 65 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Dplus KIA50c396.15$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19946448.9%227 W · 237 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd1…cd25backed Dplus KIA50c392.08$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.044557.8%26 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Dplus KIA48c365.66$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6912754.3%69 W · 58 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Gen.G50c326$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.7434756.5%196 W · 151 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e90…be2bbacked Gen.G52c324.02$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.765463%34 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Dplus KIA48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.565563.2%414 W · 241 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Dplus KIA48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.510049%49 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Dplus KIA50c306$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15328835.4%102 W · 186 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe660…2ac1backed Dplus KIA50c300$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8820150.2%101 W · 100 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.