Asian League · resolved market
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-08-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af326554206f5a60baeed6be7af4aaab7cb0b21f78913e931e6019568ce5fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd806…5131backed Yes | 4c | 5,305$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 22c | 4,441$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.13 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 77c | 3,051$2,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.27 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 1,732$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.41 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,675$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.75 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 1,184$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.57 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 79c | 1,050$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.51 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…d371backed No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…6f42backed Yes | 21c | 896.83$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 871.3$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.91 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 20c | 766.76$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.93 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 764.73$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.56 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 79c | 572.29$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 20c | 496.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed No | 78c | 377.82$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 22c | 275.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0b…cf0cbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 246$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 132.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5249backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…e2d4backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 18c | 122.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked No | 58c | 113.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…42ccbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 79c | 103.84$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2f…20a5backed Yes | 23c | 99.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…f71dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 85.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Yes | 18c | 82.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed No | 80c | 82.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 80c | 77.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 21c | 75.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 21c | 67.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 63 | 82.5%52 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…cb03backed Yes | 21c | 60.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e64…9cb7backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 20c | 55.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…c609backed Yes | 21c | 50.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0536…c50bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 57cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…0c08backed No | 78c | 40.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 40.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 79c | 40.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecd…fdc5backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 77cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked No | 80c | 37.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ce…9cb3backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 59c | 33.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 79c | 32.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 78c | 28.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6242…6482backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed No | 80c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…3cb0backed No | 80c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 76c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-08-14?this page
- Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-08-14?Yes won
- Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.