Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b721c8578a7e1a5ff82dd05a5b01dbc65efb85d50f2ca8c892a635c5ab46aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 435.41$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 31c | 292.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 221.65$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 186.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 174.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 36c | 151.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 144.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 143.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 25c | 132$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 19c | 130.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 78c | 129.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 33c | 121.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 120.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 119.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 107.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 100.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 99.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 94.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 93.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 75.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 35c | 68.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 64c | 62.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 62.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 58.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 53.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 33c | 51.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…76f0backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 67c | 48.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 27c | 47.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 44.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 33c | 42.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 40.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…9dcdbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…3124backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 67c | 37.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…1ef9backed No | 67c | 37.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 37.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 37.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 37.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 33c | 33.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 32.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 29.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 37c | 27.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 42c | 25.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 67c | 18.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 16.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.