Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3d7cbf15d5b796763df56447e1b80f32f7c4aead4e7b87f51e226444c7b12b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 577.61$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed No | 74c | 400$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 57c | 379.05$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 326.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 42c | 300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 31c | 232.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 203.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 194.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 178.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 165$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 161$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 43c | 151.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 145.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 137$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 131.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 119.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 44c | 116.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 65c | 115.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 51c | 105.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…764abacked Yes | 44c | 104$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 99.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 90.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 89.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 89.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 55c | 88.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 35c | 84.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 58c | 84.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 75.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 46c | 65.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 48c | 62.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 56.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 45c | 51.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…14c2backed Yes | 63c | 49.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 56c | 44.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 32c | 42.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 46c | 39.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 51c | 39.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 37.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 36.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x956e…7e32backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed Yes | 45c | 34.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 26.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 45c | 25.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 52c | 24.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 76c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 56c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.