TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes41c1,772$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.9942036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes45c1,287$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.111,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No57c1,095$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.172,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2856…c8f9backed Yes39c1,005$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.894753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes33c717.8$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed No55c518$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.117658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No60c490.7$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.048,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes3c439.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5229219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No60c422.34$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.931454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes38c374.48$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.038,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes24c364.86$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.74,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c349.15$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.34,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c337.57$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.245,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c315.88$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c301.43$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.594,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed No68c293.71$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.112544%11 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No56c286.82$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.271,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c254$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.142,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2801…3676backed Yes39c242.93$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.41944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c227.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.276,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes16c217.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.521,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes46c163$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9889557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes36c158.32$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c152$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.594,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes32c128$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No53c124$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.281,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes47c123.09$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No53c115.35$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2118043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes28c106.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7615948.4%77 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes36c106.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.864,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes48c100.81$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef11…a7a1backed Yes42c100.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.175335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes44c92.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.412,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No64c85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d57…419cbacked No63c84.57$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.291442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No64c74.37$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7321264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No57c72$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.722,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes44c69.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.535137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No51c66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.342751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes29c60.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.658727.6%24 W · 63 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes31c60.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6521651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes38c59.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc6…dde3backed Yes43c58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.943050%15 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae33…7804backed No53c57.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.787857.7%45 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes23c56.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No59c56.67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0722849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked No70c56.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.073557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7554253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes30c54.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3832352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No58c53.71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.431,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…e06fbacked Yes43c53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.793641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.546457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2344646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.542547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No54c47.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.084,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes35c47.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.815,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c47.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes38c44.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.031,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked No57c44.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.016966.7%46 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes44c43.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.977835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa052…925abacked No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.932227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.27655.3%42 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes47c39.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.751,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7512747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes40c34.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6416354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes48c33.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0410547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3928360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.29,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No55c30.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.681,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0517165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No50c28.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.071,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No51c26.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.280050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes41c25.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2835742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes43c24.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.474337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.155,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No80c23.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.765062%31 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes45c23.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.627847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…52c7backed Yes47c22.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked No59c22.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.240237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd687…b2adbacked No63c22.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd32…78dabacked No56c21.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.331758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+74.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xddfa…68b0backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58d5…d270backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.455641.1%23 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb6…4f98backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91540%6 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No62c19.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4371649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No58c19.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0942762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No64c15.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6794066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.