Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7078da8d4afa42bf82e6f8cc519b66d805ded94e27a950259de8b5e634b59750
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 2,440$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 73c | 1,114$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 33c | 989.54$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.98 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 63c | 857.43$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.78 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 726.15$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 28c | 560.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.54 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 528.5$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 495.41$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 28c | 477.87$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.21 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 437$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.65 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 394.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 366.53$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 56c | 338.58$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 333.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 29c | 320.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.76 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 315.59$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked No | 71c | 305.36$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.02 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 76c | 300.37$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 275.72$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.63 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…3676backed Yes | 53c | 273.43$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 266.21$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 78c | 228.18$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 228$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 27c | 216.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 56c | 214.36$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 212$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 67c | 210.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 207.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 175.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 34c | 173.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 36c | 170.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 58c | 158.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 154.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 61c | 140.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 138.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 133.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 132.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 35c | 125.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…0f06backed Yes | 28c | 125.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 124.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 28c | 123.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 122.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 121.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 32c | 121.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 119.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 115.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…c264backed No | 47c | 115.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 113.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 45c | 111.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 102.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 101.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 101.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 100.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 68c | 88.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 45c | 82.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 43c | 80.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 54c | 75.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 47c | 74.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 49c | 70.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 70.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 27c | 69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 73c | 67.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 66.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…5f84backed No | 72c | 60.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed Yes | 51c | 58.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 58.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 70c | 57.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 29c | 55.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 41c | 54.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 54.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 49c | 53.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 27c | 53.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 53.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 52.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 46c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 48c | 50.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 50c | 50.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 48c | 45.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 50c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 44.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 39.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 63c | 36.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 33c | 35.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 56c | 35.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 49c | 33.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fa…69a8backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 32.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.