Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b8ec3bf43442f1088ac6d3010416e461f4c49c3e7f5935fda4aacdf4a3e2f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 68c | 2,951$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 58c | 2,055$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.75 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 37c | 1,820$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.6 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 37c | 1,600$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.95 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 63c | 1,531$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.84 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 37c | 1,200$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.97 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 63c | 1,156$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.97 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 63c | 1,156$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.97 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 1,149$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.75 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 1,071$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…646bbacked Over | 56c | 700$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 37c | 699.98$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.99 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 37c | 599.97$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.98 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 37c | 499.98$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 408.82$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.15 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 37c | 399.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 64c | 349.98$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.49 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 64c | 312.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 37c | 299.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.98 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 63c | 277.21$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…90ccbacked Under | 63c | 260.97$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 37c | 259.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 37c | 259.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.78 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 35c | 203.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.37 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 63c | 193.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 63c | 173.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 14c | 163.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 37c | 160$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 37c | 156$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 37c | 155.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 37c | 139.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 37c | 136.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Under | 15c | 119.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 61c | 116.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 47c | 107.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 37c | 106.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 45c | 104.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 37c | 99.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…b622backed Over | 33c | 85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 18c | 77.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 37c | 74.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 41c | 68.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fe…1471backed Under | 50c | 65.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 63c | 50.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 60c | 44.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 64c | 43.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Under | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Under | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…1694backed Over | 48c | 31.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 46c | 31.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 87 | 6.9%6 W · 81 L | -21.4wins | -0.25per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…f050backed Under | 63c | 31.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…b5e3backed Over | 38c | 31.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 63c | 29.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 55c | 26.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Under | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1993…17c3backed Under | 45c | 22.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5this page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 0.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.