Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c16b17836bc6e696622fe6856c771656ee3d7ca407e7cfb4fcc988c51e85bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 35c | 6,407$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.43 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 65c | 1,600$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 65c | 1,200$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 36c | 999.94$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.21 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 65c | 700$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 65c | 416.02$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.61 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 65c | 399.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 23c | 392.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 35c | 300.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 65c | 260$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 65c | 260$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 63c | 189.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 182.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 65c | 159.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 65c | 156$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 65c | 156$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…e6d7backed Over | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 77c | 123.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 98.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…357cbacked Over | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 78c | 42.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 64c | 40.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 73c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5this page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 0.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.