Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ba0e3aada499296fafb1503b1d6d2961a384eef3941920c59446b693716166b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Down | 53c | 2,477$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.31 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 36c | 901.3$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.15 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Up | 53c | 704.05$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.42 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Up | 53c | 560$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.8 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Down | 69c | 484.94$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.94 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Down | 55c | 400.2$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.09 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Up | 45c | 318.63$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Down | 55c | 257.85$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 46c | 255.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Down | 14c | 219.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.62 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Down | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Up | 64c | 199.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 50c | 175.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Down | 39c | 170.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Down | 54c | 107.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…1f2fbacked Up | 46c | 107.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…eeadbacked Up | 78c | 106.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 27c | 106.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…2660backed Down | 73c | 102.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Down | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Up | 19c | 98.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked Down | 30c | 95.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6965…a371backed Up | 76c | 92.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Down | 48c | 80.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071a…d310backed Up | 54c | 79.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Down | 49c | 61.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…f7a4backed Down | 58c | 60.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Up | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed Down | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Down | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Down | 39c | 47.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Down | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Up | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Down | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13a…3c7abacked Up | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…2780backed Down | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed Up | 68c | 28.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…ea6cbacked Up | 44c | 23.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ea…b6b5backed Up | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…032cbacked Down | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Down | 56c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244c…a4ccbacked Up | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.