MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c1038665926cf9b5e5e78608fdd0d08d93628fd26466326aedada613750aac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 2,444$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.2 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 47c | 1,948$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.87 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,729$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.17 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 1,716$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.84 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 1,473$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 25c | 1,345$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.98 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over | 46c | 1,212$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.08 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 1,034$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Over | 56c | 915$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 58c | 780.13$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.57 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 49c | 660$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2a5fbacked Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 517$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.71 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Over | 41c | 488$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.92 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 58c | 404.03$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.12 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 386.37$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 278.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 40c | 271.43$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 40c | 263.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 46c | 237.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 45c | 209.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 181.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 170.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 154.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 136.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 55c | 114.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 63c | 96.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 94.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 45c | 91.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 45c | 91.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 53c | 90.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 43c | 85.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 79.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 33c | 78.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Under | 56c | 69.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 44c | 67.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 42c | 48.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 54c | 47.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 44.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 28c | 42.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 40.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 38.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 40c | 36.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 50c | 31.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 59c | 26.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 43c | 26.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 49c | 20.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.