Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c35406a1451aed285034f14c370d278d12834e094c370bcfe089687d99b4fb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 1,013$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 522.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 38c | 343.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 257$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 238.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 190.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 175.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6295…6286backed No | 74c | 156.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 65c | 154.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 149.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 132.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 78c | 124.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 60c | 122.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 68c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 117.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 96.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 86.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 56c | 84.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 81.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 24c | 75.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 68.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 54c | 64.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 64.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 17c | 60.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 36c | 58.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 51.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 45c | 51.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 51.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 37c | 47.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 47.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 46.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c53…3145backed Yes | 36c | 43.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 35.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…0339backed No | 62c | 35.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 32.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 31.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1dbfbacked Yes | 40c | 30.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 58c | 20.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…5ee6backed No | 77c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.