Fifa International · resolved market
Austria to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c3609f9d3db7b776daea52464d1d2e6eb9353d835a463c9c769437fce25a347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 39c | 1,960$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.15 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 71c | 1,358$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.19 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed No | 48c | 1,151$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.92 | 201 | 86.1%173 W · 28 L | +46.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 35c | 776.8$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.96 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 49c | 701.98$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.01 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed No | 47c | 604$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.12 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed No | 76c | 562.68$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 29c | 501$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.29 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 30c | 414.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.24 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed No | 73c | 411.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 28c | 323.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 23c | 270$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 235.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…baaabacked No | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…61c0backed Yes | 10c | 179.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 349 | 64.5%225 W · 124 L | +73.5wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 66c | 137.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 340 | 56.5%192 W · 148 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…18f8backed No | 70c | 127.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…f001backed Yes | 26c | 100.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked No | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +34.7wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +61%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed No | 76c | 57.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9cbdbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 67c | 28.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 374 | 58.8%220 W · 154 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 28.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 72c | 27.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 377 | 47.7%180 W · 197 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 25.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austria to win the second half?this page
- Algeria to win the second half?No won
- Algeria vs. Austria: Second half draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.