Tennis · resolved market
Augsburg: Marvin Moeller vs Thomas Faurel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d34005aa243a361fe6af7d92451ef84baeeba5740577c3b6201f73e8f3ed1e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marvin Moellerof Marvin Moeller, Thomas Faurel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Thomas Faurel | 2c | 12,455$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.04 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…61e5backed Marvin Moeller | 58c | 5,043$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Thomas Faurel | 43c | 3,537$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.91 | 377 | 38.2%144 W · 233 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Thomas Faurel | 9c | 2,098$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Thomas Faurel | 42c | 2,057$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.5 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Thomas Faurel | 42c | 2,048$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.35 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Thomas Faurel | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…4727backed Thomas Faurel | 43c | 1,960$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marvin Moeller | 77c | 1,703$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.33 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Marvin Moeller | 60c | 1,175$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.43 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Marvin Moeller | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.62 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Thomas Faurel | 48c | 1,046$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.08 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Marvin Moeller | 76c | 999.99$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 465 | 51.2%238 W · 227 L | -23.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Marvin Moeller | 57c | 791.72$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.44 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Thomas Faurel | 8c | 680.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Marvin Moeller | 57c | 658.79$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.28 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Thomas Faurel | 34c | 628.85$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.79 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Thomas Faurel | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 190 | 41.6%79 W · 111 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Thomas Faurel | 43c | 599.99$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Thomas Faurel | 9c | 556.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Marvin Moeller | 70c | 546.93$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.82 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Marvin Moeller | 57c | 497.38$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.87 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marvin Moeller | 73c | 467.02$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…757abacked Marvin Moeller | 58c | 392.69$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.93 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Marvin Moeller | 59c | 371.15$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.91 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Thomas Faurel | 42c | 366.47$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Thomas Faurel | 24c | 341.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Thomas Faurel | 43c | 304.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Marvin Moeller | 74c | 231.9$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Thomas Faurel | 31c | 201.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Marvin Moeller | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 279 | 49.1%137 W · 142 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Marvin Moeller | 61c | 159.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 482 | 42.5%205 W · 277 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Thomas Faurel | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…3ad7backed Thomas Faurel | 46c | 106.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Marvin Moeller | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Marvin Moeller | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 449 | 46.1%207 W · 242 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Thomas Faurel | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Thomas Faurel | 42c | 95.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Thomas Faurel | 34c | 75.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Thomas Faurel | 39c | 72.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…8eefbacked Thomas Faurel | 40c | 61.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed Marvin Moeller | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Marvin Moeller | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…155ebacked Thomas Faurel | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Thomas Faurel | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf2…d6d8backed Marvin Moeller | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc40…6ae3backed Thomas Faurel | 39c | 50.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Thomas Faurel | 43c | 45.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Marvin Moeller | 68c | 44.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Marvin Moeller | 57c | 40.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 205 | 70.7%145 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Marvin Moeller | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…601dbacked Thomas Faurel | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Thomas Faurel | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…2a0abacked Marvin Moeller | 57c | 34.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…f51dbacked Marvin Moeller | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…13c8backed Thomas Faurel | 39c | 32.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Thomas Faurel | 40c | 31.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Marvin Moeller | 60c | 30.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Marvin Moeller | 62c | 28.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 375 | 47.2%177 W · 198 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Thomas Faurel | 40c | 28.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Marvin Moeller | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f40…16c7backed Marvin Moeller | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7f…64b7backed Marvin Moeller | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Thomas Faurel | 45c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…cda9backed Marvin Moeller | 54c | 23.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Marvin Moeller | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 353 | 57.2%202 W · 151 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Marvin Moeller | 54c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…188abacked Marvin Moeller | 72c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.