Europa Conference League · resolved market
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. KRC Genk: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d382500f4d02f5e260f22bdeff1f4964c05ce60c28ae6280f11f36d9d3d8255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 54c | 8,761$4,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737.02 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 52c | 7,790$4,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,739.2 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 54c | 3,697$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 3,537$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.89 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 43c | 3,456$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 3,375$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.57 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed Over | 54c | 2,381$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 2,146$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.32 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 35c | 2,031$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.14 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 72c | 1,022$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.76 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 26c | 961$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.14 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 819.14$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.08 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…1afcbacked Over | 59c | 607.91$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Over | 66c | 553.85$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed Over | 44c | 549.32$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 28c | 545.34$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.83 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 57c | 525.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 28c | 503.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 52c | 389.49$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 28c | 357.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.11 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -11.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 282.45$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 28c | 277.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 53c | 231.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Over | 28c | 220$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 72c | 204.56$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 27c | 185.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 27c | 185.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 38c | 150$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 69c | 144.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 138.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 28c | 128.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Over | 26c | 113.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…0faabacked Under | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 51c | 83.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…811bbacked Under | 44c | 79.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b0…4758backed Over | 55c | 73.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 55c | 60.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…772abacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…8b5ebacked Over | 28c | 52.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 53c | 42.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…22bfbacked Over | 28c | 38.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Over | 50c | 38.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…6ca4backed Over | 28c | 37.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…83a0backed Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…d79fbacked Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 71c | 31.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -12.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 74c | 26.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a2…dc15backed Over | 52c | 24.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 62c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…7eaabacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528d…701ebacked Under | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…87bfbacked Under | 74c | 18.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 55c | 18.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…da1cbacked Under | 74c | 17.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…7b0cbacked Under | 74c | 17.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…b491backed Under | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…0944backed Under | 74c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…53dbbacked Under | 74c | 14.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. KRC Genk: O/U 3.5this page
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. KRC Genk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. KRC Genk: O/U 1.5Over won
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. KRC Genk: O/U 2.5Over won
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. KRC Genk: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-1.5)KRC Genk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.