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South American Leagues · resolved market

Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-08-28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Yes7c19,067$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.342,37634.7%824 W · 1,552 L-27.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes22c6,549$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.810154.5%55 W · 46 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes22c6,359$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.1251935.5%184 W · 335 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd9f…c675backed Yes14c5,436$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7523046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes6c5,200$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3164219%8 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No78c3,724$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.82,01551.4%1,036 W · 979 L+44.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44025155.4%139 W · 112 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked No78c1,600$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35216261.1%99 W · 63 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed No78c1,568$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.9622757.3%130 W · 97 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f4…6e5dbacked Yes22c1,364$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No78c1,127$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.971,26153.6%676 W · 585 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Yes6c966.67$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584816.7%8 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes13c883$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5424932.9%82 W · 167 L-1.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No78c600$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13224454.1%132 W · 112 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes12c527.26$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6513234.1%45 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd09…8974backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154744.7%21 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed No78c458.83$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9423067%154 W · 76 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Yes8c412.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed No78c400$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8819859.6%118 W · 80 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No78c400$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8821658.8%127 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No78c353.06$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.671,68850.8%857 W · 831 L-4.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Yes7c350$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.524437.3%91 W · 153 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No78c294.98$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.663,44951.4%1,773 W · 1,676 L+22.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8521…df10backed Yes10c293.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-69.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No78c273.18$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.11,30853.7%702 W · 606 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed No78c255.12$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.136055%33 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes21c214.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9529240.1%117 W · 175 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445251.9%27 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4425557.3%146 W · 109 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444555.6%25 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4423356.7%132 W · 101 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4429151.9%151 W · 140 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e6…2db1backed Yes14c188.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a4…46cabacked Yes22c170.32$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab7a…044dbacked Yes22c156.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked No78c156$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3215659.6%93 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No78c155.38$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.62,65554.2%1,440 W · 1,215 L+27.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes22c138.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.471,48937.4%557 W · 932 L+5.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes22c136.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041641.1%171 W · 245 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa24e…1be8backed Yes9c134.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed Yes22c115$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.251833.3%6 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-42%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No78c102$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4416659.6%99 W · 67 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2215960.4%96 W · 63 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02b9…60c6backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes22c68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.965947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9735…db39backed No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.294555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes22c58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7611143.2%48 W · 63 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd64…bdabbacked No79c50.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.824457%139 W · 105 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed No79c37.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8919154.5%104 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked No78c23.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.421857.8%126 W · 92 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.420560.5%124 W · 81 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.422258.6%130 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x147c…2540backed No79c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.787054.3%38 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No78c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0819560.5%118 W · 77 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.