South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-08-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d5ee43f4d91940152fdca7e1758073f641b40ec4183d92f4d82dfe36d076252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 7c | 19,067$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.34 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 22c | 6,549$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.8 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 22c | 6,359$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.12 | 519 | 35.5%184 W · 335 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…c675backed Yes | 14c | 5,436$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,200$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 3,724$2,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.8 | 2,015 | 51.4%1,036 W · 979 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 251 | 55.4%139 W · 112 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 78c | 1,600$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 78c | 1,568$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.96 | 227 | 57.3%130 W · 97 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…6e5dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 1,127$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.97 | 1,261 | 53.6%676 W · 585 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 6c | 966.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 13c | 883$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 12c | 527.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 132 | 34.1%45 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 78c | 458.83$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 230 | 67%154 W · 76 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Yes | 8c | 412.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 198 | 59.6%118 W · 80 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 353.06$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 1,688 | 50.8%857 W · 831 L | -4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 7c | 350$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 244 | 37.3%91 W · 153 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 294.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 3,449 | 51.4%1,773 W · 1,676 L | +22.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Yes | 10c | 293.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 273.18$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 1,308 | 53.7%702 W · 606 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed No | 78c | 255.12$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 21c | 214.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 292 | 40.1%117 W · 175 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 255 | 57.3%146 W · 109 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 233 | 56.7%132 W · 101 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e6…2db1backed Yes | 14c | 188.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a4…46cabacked Yes | 22c | 170.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…044dbacked Yes | 22c | 156.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 78c | 156$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 156 | 59.6%93 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 155.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,655 | 54.2%1,440 W · 1,215 L | +27.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 138.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1,489 | 37.4%557 W · 932 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 41.1%171 W · 245 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24e…1be8backed Yes | 9c | 134.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Yes | 22c | 115$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -42%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 78c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b9…60c6backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 22c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…bdabbacked No | 79c | 50.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 244 | 57%139 W · 105 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 79c | 37.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 78c | 23.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 205 | 60.5%124 W · 81 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 222 | 58.6%130 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 195 | 60.5%118 W · 77 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-08-28?this page
- Will CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-08-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.