Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d692af53c820bef0e8818ea996739e8527196a64866445350ebf7b2c1564f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 17c | 2,819$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.22 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 22c | 2,580$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.08 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 2,554$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.71 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 21c | 1,812$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.78 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…4d49backed Yes | 39c | 1,290$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 79c | 1,278$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.08 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 1,161$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.4 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 25c | 693.06$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.44 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 26c | 661.04$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 630.9$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.62 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes | 28c | 488.76$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 18c | 476.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…6ca4backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…f3dabacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 60c | 421.59$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.88 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 21c | 357.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 327$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 78c | 309.61$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…b3eabacked Yes | 22c | 227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…f627backed Yes | 22c | 227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…62dfbacked Yes | 22c | 227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 168.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Yes | 28c | 160.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 158.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed Yes | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 24c | 139$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Yes | 25c | 127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…6253backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 77c | 107$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 80c | 95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5385…fb59backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 80c | 86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 78c | 80.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…e5c0backed Yes | 21c | 55.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…276abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad0…9eefbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Yes | 24c | 48.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 79c | 46.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 72c | 31.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…f568backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 23.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 75c | 20.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…6959backed No | 79c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.