TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

Livesport Prague Open: Laura Samson vs Maya Joint

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maya Jointof Laura Samson, Maya Joint
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$254,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$274,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,358 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Maya Joint67c27,754$18,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,096.029,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Laura Samson38c17,405$6,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,687.6111,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Laura Samson26c14,763$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,900.1894140.6%382 W · 559 L-31.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Laura Samson41c11,788$4,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,832.956157.4%35 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Laura Samson33c10,789$3,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,564.794,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Laura Samson41c7,588$3,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,123.613,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Laura Samson36c5,744$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.841,40442.8%601 W · 803 L-31.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x492b…45eebacked Laura Samson27c5,100$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.1716349.7%81 W · 82 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Maya Joint62c4,592$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.976,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Maya Joint67c4,070$2,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.11,20649%591 W · 615 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Laura Samson8c3,837$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.378,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Maya Joint60c3,593$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.254,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Maya Joint72c3,531$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.895749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Maya Joint65c3,166$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.1229443.5%128 W · 166 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c2…63d8backed Maya Joint64c3,120$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.925166.7%34 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…ffe8backed Maya Joint78c2,325$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.9811754.7%64 W · 53 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Laura Samson55c2,052$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.834,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Maya Joint65c1,906$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.4131653.2%168 W · 148 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…5806backed Laura Samson22c1,838$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Laura Samson31c1,713$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.83,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Maya Joint53c1,711$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.3837345%168 W · 205 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Laura Samson40c1,680$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.732,52138.4%969 W · 1,552 L+93.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x693b…84e3backed Maya Joint66c1,655$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.919063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Maya Joint61c1,577$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.582,44451.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024a…35a3backed Maya Joint70c1,332$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Laura Samson17c1,175$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.871,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Laura Samson38c1,171$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.4895237.7%359 W · 593 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Laura Samson35c1,144$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40068557.8%396 W · 289 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Maya Joint64c1,072$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.1988157.9%510 W · 371 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d26…ca0ebacked Maya Joint60c1,013$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.219251%98 W · 94 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b35…51b3backed Laura Samson38c1,004$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.5835360.9%215 W · 138 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Laura Samson34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3409,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Laura Samson40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Maya Joint78c987.81$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.548,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Maya Joint61c879.51$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.0175543.4%328 W · 427 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Laura Samson34c852.94$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901,05340.9%431 W · 622 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1713…1986backed Maya Joint61c825.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.342360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Maya Joint59c712.14$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.9811153.2%59 W · 52 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Laura Samson40c599.99$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2382,27542.7%972 W · 1,303 L+33.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Laura Samson34c567.91$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.635,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Maya Joint60c555$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22234655.2%191 W · 155 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Laura Samson23c534.51$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.261,13145.4%514 W · 617 L-34.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Maya Joint60c527.75$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.14,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…f871backed Maya Joint53c510.45$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.416251.6%32 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae6a…de5ebacked Maya Joint51c505.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.9925558%148 W · 107 L+20.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Laura Samson39c481.33$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.737,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Maya Joint55c452.97$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9747234.7%164 W · 308 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Maya Joint64c439.3$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.152,86849.5%1,419 W · 1,449 L+23.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffe…a60fbacked Maya Joint72c416.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1616967.5%114 W · 55 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Laura Samson5c404.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2438141.2%157 W · 224 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Laura Samson32c398$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.491,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Laura Samson40c380$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15229849.7%148 W · 150 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Laura Samson27c363.1$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.42,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Maya Joint71c352$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.485,49848.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L+10.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Laura Samson33c342.4$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.012,88739.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L-84.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Laura Samson26c331.22$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.176,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Maya Joint64c305.53$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.376355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0e0…585bbacked Laura Samson41c279.98$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9310451%53 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Laura Samson38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10098841.3%408 W · 580 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Maya Joint58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.621,19852.4%628 W · 570 L+28.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd169…8ff6backed Maya Joint51c245.1$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.128437.3%106 W · 178 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b50…fd61backed Laura Samson17c244$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.485752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Laura Samson39c240$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.61,58042.3%668 W · 912 L+18.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ca…bfddbacked Maya Joint43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5661341.8%256 W · 357 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Maya Joint61c231.15$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.152,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Maya Joint70c222.78$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3325234.1%86 W · 166 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcba…2398backed Laura Samson41c216.92$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8811145.9%51 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Laura Samson58c210.88$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3136540.8%149 W · 216 L-13.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Laura Samson38c210$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.883747.6%398 W · 439 L-2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04c7…c7a7backed Maya Joint59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8219051.1%97 W · 93 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Laura Samson40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Laura Samson34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x220f…0b32backed Laura Samson34c199.38$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.792045%9 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Laura Samson41c196$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.361,04750%524 W · 523 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c22…0a8cbacked Maya Joint65c195.79$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0146640.6%189 W · 277 L-36.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b33…d653backed Laura Samson41c195.73$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7923442.7%100 W · 134 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Laura Samson38c194.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7514036.4%51 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…a5f6backed Maya Joint61c188.15$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.381675%12 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Maya Joint58c188$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9662752%326 W · 301 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Laura Samson8c187.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2989741.7%374 W · 523 L-9.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Laura Samson40c186$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.947,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8f…6661backed Maya Joint59c185.49$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.051764.7%11 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Laura Samson52c183$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.311,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Laura Samson32c178.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.621,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Maya Joint40c175$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10558931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9d…5a06backed Maya Joint76c167.08$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.12365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd215…757abacked Maya Joint72c156.86$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9230053.7%161 W · 139 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked Maya Joint44c156$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.368751.7%45 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e73…ac97backed Maya Joint65c153.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3520452.5%107 W · 97 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03aa…0312backed Maya Joint70c152.86$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.564465.9%29 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Maya Joint66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.521,67353%887 W · 786 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba7…dd5abacked Maya Joint67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2517554.3%95 W · 80 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Laura Samson33c149.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.611,47643.8%647 W · 829 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Maya Joint69c145.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0572957.3%418 W · 311 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf753…bcfebacked Laura Samson35c144.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053736.9%198 W · 339 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f06…8ebebacked Laura Samson35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020553.7%110 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Laura Samson17c141.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2495655.9%534 W · 422 L+19.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Laura Samson42c140$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.867848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Maya Joint59c126.33$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.890152.3%471 W · 430 L-2.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Laura Samson36c125.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4533048.8%161 W · 169 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.