Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df253687518c008f155f1ec350e4a1e6eb707df8dd603eae2c404c0597dbc52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 1,033$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 13c | 438.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 22c | 291.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 214.3$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 148.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 20c | 132.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 128.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 27c | 128.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 13c | 127.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 24c | 119.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 15c | 115.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 12c | 88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 81.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 80.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 76.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 75.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 16c | 73.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 60.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 42c | 47.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 73c | 47.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd40…7730backed Yes | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 42c | 39.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 32.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 27.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.