Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1657e3605c0a36dbc1d5217b52ba073d8b6a06d1b7b1133c6fe10272961c963c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 964.13$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 822.84$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked No | 8c | 431.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 370.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 29c | 330.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 315.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 59c | 313$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.46 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 298.48$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 255.94$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 242.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 68c | 203.84$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 162$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 161.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 159.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 154.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 148.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 129.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 128.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 38c | 125$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 115$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 39c | 114.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 107.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 40c | 103.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 33c | 96.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 95.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 30c | 86.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 82.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 35c | 80.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 79.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 55c | 71.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 69.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 70c | 69.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 64.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 64.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 58c | 64.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 62.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 57.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 57c | 56.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 53.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 52.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 24c | 50.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 48.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 45.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 44.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 35c | 42.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 41.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 41.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 55c | 40.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 38.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 41c | 37.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 72c | 37.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 41c | 33.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 69c | 32.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 51c | 31.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 28.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 39c | 28.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 25.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 58c | 23.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 22.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 72c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 15.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.