Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0327134c31eb3844e87d9751082dda029df2b3f80f39bf5b7fb6395bfd1d9f0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 49c | 607.41$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.31 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 41c | 364.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 302.13$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 281.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 243.35$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 75c | 200.55$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 183.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 173.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 172.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 149.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 74c | 135.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 59c | 123.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 122.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 17c | 111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 103.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 49c | 102.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 55c | 81.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 48c | 78.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 61c | 78.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 62c | 77.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 46c | 76.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 64c | 74.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 72.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 44c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 41c | 69.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 50c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 64.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 64.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 40c | 61.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 61.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 67c | 59.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 57.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…cdd1backed Yes | 47c | 54.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 51.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 51.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 51.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 49.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 57c | 48.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 48.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 48c | 46.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 50c | 45.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 41.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 40.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…e5d7backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 37.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 61c | 33.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 40c | 32.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 51c | 31.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 44c | 30.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 41c | 29.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 45c | 28.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 28.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 27.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 63c | 26.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 70c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 53c | 19.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4834…cc1ebacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 63c | 16.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 16.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.