Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e23f4ab274ea1a26e7e25444e08aa64b28b83c272bba0992d691aa4531905a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 42c | 2,197$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.49 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.58 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 477.33$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 67c | 419.99$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.28 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 328.81$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 43c | 304.83$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 244.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 54c | 239.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 238.84$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 234$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 229.14$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 223.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 213.54$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 207.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 188.88$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 35c | 187.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 8c | 187.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 187$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 62c | 185$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 168$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 161.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 156.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 149.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 141.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 138.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 62c | 136.93$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 44c | 124.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 41c | 123.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 123.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 38c | 117.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 39c | 117.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 54c | 116.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 47c | 116.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 105$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 58c | 104.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 101.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 62c | 100.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…526bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 41c | 98.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed No | 65c | 93.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 93.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 90.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 82.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 81.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 80.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 77.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 69.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 43c | 66.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…30a5backed Yes | 44c | 65.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 42c | 64.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 59c | 64.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 63.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 62.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 42c | 59.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6671…e109backed No | 51c | 56.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 37c | 53.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 52.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 50.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…664ebacked No | 48c | 47.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 45.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 45.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 61c | 43.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 43.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 41.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 61c | 40.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked No | 59c | 40.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 36.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 35c | 36.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 35.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 34.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…4e61backed Yes | 52c | 32.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 31.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.