TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,728 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes42c2,197$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.4910539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes40c1,000$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.5816724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c477.33$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.295,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes67c419.99$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.2856048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15654853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No58c328.81$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.522,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes43c304.83$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c244.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.731,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8db…458dbacked Yes54c239.84$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.22437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c238.84$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No60c234$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.543,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c229.14$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.774,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c223.8$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.175,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c213.54$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.923,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No48c207.75$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.14,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c188.88$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.115,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes35c187.54$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.552,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes8c187.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No61c187$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.931,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No62c185$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3247866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes43c168$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.761,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c161.54$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.789,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No58c156.88$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.232,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c149.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes47c141.4$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0142148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes38c138.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.027,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes62c136.93$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes44c124.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.14,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No41c123.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5118142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c123.17$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes38c117.46$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No39c117.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9116847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes54c116.88$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6222335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No47c116.52$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c105$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.624,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No58c104.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7526744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes57c101.55$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.595,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No62c100.49$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.138458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5626540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4318131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2283…526bbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8710…f9c7backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1db…62afbacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.53438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes12c99.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127129.6%21 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes41c98.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb710…49c3backed No65c93.19$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.482937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c93.1$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.152,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c90.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.64,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes42c82.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No58c82$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.442,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes14c81.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.751,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c80.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.997,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No58c77.13$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7290555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes37c75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c69.72$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.778,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes43c66.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.932445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4277…30a5backed Yes44c65.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No42c64.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4117747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No59c64.08$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1327056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No57c63.16$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.163,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No47c62.2$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.161,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2740535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes42c59.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6671…e109backed No51c56.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.451163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No65c56$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.67443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes37c53.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0113540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No61c52.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4164859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94ae…d801backed No57c52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3613950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No70c50.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.422,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed No37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.52445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2127248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2115950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc723…664ebacked No48c47.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No48c45.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.953,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes30c45.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.396,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No61c43.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8634853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes36c43.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.622,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No60c42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.858358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes43c41.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7646240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes61c40.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.889545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked No59c40.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.527540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.414161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.253353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.225954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes41c36.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9819734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes35c36.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8331936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No61c35.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.671,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2586949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No61c34.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.262,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a0c…4e61backed Yes52c32.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.911361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes36c31.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4187629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.