Dota2 · resolved market
PARIVISION to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3bb4c7016529c7f39dd0b95fc30653115e673b623d237bf532179ed6f375a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Yes | 80c | 32,250$25,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,450 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 20c | 11,751$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.01 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 20c | 10,102$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.65 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 20c | 10,000$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 20c | 9,081$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.23 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…8440backed Yes | 80c | 2,800$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,310$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.51 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 20c | 1,267$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.43 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 709.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Yes | 80c | 502.5$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked No | 20c | 476.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 292.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 237.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Yes | 74c | 223.53$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952a…bdc8backed Yes | 80c | 169.16$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 21c | 167.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 80c | 155$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 71c | 129.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 20c | 126.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…da4fbacked Yes | 79c | 120.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed No | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ab…6327backed No | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 28c | 69.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 26c | 55.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 56 | 82.1%46 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 70c | 39.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PARIVISION to win 2-0?this page
- REKONIX to win 2-0?No won
- REKONIX vs PARIVISION: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.