Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e6153ad6326e47036f9746c9f64ec9de6b077ecfbfb5cd03e98e278cdd7397d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,452 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 2c | 1,656$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 1,040$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 295$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 35c | 253.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 229$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 202.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 200.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 45c | 156.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 147.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 29c | 146.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 67c | 141.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 51c | 140.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 45c | 135.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 53c | 129.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 112.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 107.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 57c | 105.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…1a9ebacked Yes | 28c | 103.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 98.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 95.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 87.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 44c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 84.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 32c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 78.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 32c | 67.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 45c | 66.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…abe6backed Yes | 42c | 59.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 57.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 52c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 56c | 50.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 55c | 36.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 34.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…ef40backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 52c | 22.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 72c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.