Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadd1440eb24be327f4186cbe7aa4669aef28e1e0b0ec7c4d6268f33de42eac7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 694.64$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…0caebacked No | 2c | 469.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 68c | 445.16$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.74 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed No | 6c | 381.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 322.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 312.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 12c | 290.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…4687backed No | 70c | 254.3$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…71a0backed No | 14c | 245.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 175.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 26c | 175.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 56c | 168.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e5…a98cbacked No | 9c | 158.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 22c | 136.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed No | 78c | 127.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 10c | 116.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a0…661ebacked No | 12c | 108.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 108.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 30c | 101.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 100.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 29c | 95.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 84.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 15c | 82.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…513dbacked No | 79c | 71.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 67.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 66.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 63.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 29c | 60.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 70c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 39c | 54.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 75c | 53.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 46c | 51.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 49.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 48.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 76c | 45.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 45.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 34c | 43.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 35c | 43.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 70c | 40.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 75c | 39.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 38.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 29c | 38.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 58c | 37.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 32.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 66c | 30.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…ade3backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 43c | 28.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 70c | 25.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 67c | 21.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 20.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 71c | 19.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 73c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…d4aabacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.