Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eb7d056889a30eb50ed29683d7585b74b96a929dca254d8ba736e512d2dc118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,926 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 6c | 788.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 63c | 772.73$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.84 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 640.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 546$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 26c | 492.24$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 455.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 22c | 448.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.04 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 434.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 44c | 399.73$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.53 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 45c | 346.42$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.69 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 332.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 28c | 288.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 64c | 255.21$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 13c | 246.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 48c | 211.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 191$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 78c | 189.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.38 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 79c | 187.33$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 6c | 181.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 178.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 18c | 173.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 21c | 165.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 151.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 32c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…e8fabacked No | 11c | 146.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 25c | 140.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 136.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 74c | 135.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 60c | 128.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 121.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…92acbacked No | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 18c | 117.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 73c | 116.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 71c | 109.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 105.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 74c | 97.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 69c | 95.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked No | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 91.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 90.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 86.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…cdd2backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 13c | 83.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…2a6bbacked No | 34c | 81.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked No | 35c | 81.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 76c | 77.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 65c | 76.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 74.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 74.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 43c | 67.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 62.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 58.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…9843backed Yes | 24c | 57.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 53c | 55.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 77c | 52.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 68c | 51.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…71a2backed Yes | 27c | 46.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 34c | 44.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 42.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 30c | 40.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 78c | 36.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 35.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…0b3dbacked No | 76c | 34.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 72c | 34.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 33.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 32.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 73c | 31.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x554b…4719backed No | 74c | 30.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 30.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…823bbacked No | 76c | 30.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 78c | 25.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 60c | 21.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 68c | 19.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 75c | 18.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 73c | 18.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…8e24backed Yes | 69c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 79c | 15.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.