Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cccb014913081b246aaedb766de85aa923f011ecd5dc8dc1ff194b0d01bf82c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,303 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 1c | 1,387$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 38c | 535.08$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.12 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 496$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 445.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 399.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.23 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 362.02$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.74 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 37c | 320.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 60c | 291.19$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.92 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 74c | 267.32$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 240.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 59c | 233$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 67c | 223.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 52c | 216.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 38c | 213.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.46 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 43c | 210.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked No | 79c | 207.07$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 73c | 201.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 188.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 184.53$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 22c | 172.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 165.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 63c | 158$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 48c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 148.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 147$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 122.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 63c | 122.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…92acbacked No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 43c | 116$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 35c | 114.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 48c | 104.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…fdd3backed No | 71c | 99.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 55c | 99.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 53c | 99.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 31c | 88.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 44c | 80.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 78.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 31c | 76.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…01d9backed Yes | 67c | 74.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 34c | 66.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 51c | 66.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 36c | 65.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 62.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 34c | 62.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 33c | 62.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 33c | 61.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 69c | 59.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 29c | 59.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 68c | 57.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 44c | 55.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 73c | 55.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 50c | 54.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 54.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 53c | 53.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 59c | 52.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 50.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 24c | 48.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 64c | 44.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 65c | 44.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 41.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 41c | 41.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…f41bbacked Yes | 49c | 41.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 34c | 40.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798b…d699backed Yes | 47c | 40.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 52c | 38.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5286…fe66backed Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 59c | 37.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 30c | 34.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 76c | 33.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 31.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 30.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.