Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ee6c319ece9414b5a77152450a539d4d8cbaed62f90081be5f003a607ef4190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 50c | 659.05$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.9 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 447.37$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 139.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 30c | 120.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 32c | 116.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 27c | 111.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 104$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 97.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 97.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 33c | 93.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 88.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed No | 68c | 85.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 78.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 71.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 65.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 51c | 62.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 60.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 55.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 23c | 55.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 39c | 52.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…691abacked No | 72c | 46.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 37c | 45.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 41.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 40.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 33c | 39.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 37.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 35.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 35.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 34c | 34.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 34.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 66c | 32.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 29.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 29.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 26.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 70c | 26.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 67c | 19.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 67c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.