Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Liverpool end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f328fb1f2c9f927ae84c4c8455afe85cec11a984ac341a73bfb1811a87f5be2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed No | 74c | 5,042$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,730.21 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 26c | 3,358$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.3 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 36c | 2,901$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.45 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 70c | 1,334$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.75 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…a37fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,213$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 73c | 1,001$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 321 | 58.9%189 W · 132 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 30c | 928.88$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.15 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 79c | 762.33$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…4873backed Yes | 40c | 743.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes | 30c | 659.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.68 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 69c | 549.68$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.28 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…f48bbacked Yes | 30c | 334.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 43c | 290$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed No | 71c | 206.17$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…362dbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…8874backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.67per pick | 34cpaid | +230.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Yes | 75c | 182.7$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…5b74backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…5633backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed No | 14c | 138.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 70c | 114.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…16c1backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 33c | 103.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…e65cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…576fbacked Yes | 79c | 73.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…63f4backed Yes | 31c | 62.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 58.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…b19dbacked Yes | 33c | 56.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…341fbacked Yes | 75c | 54.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…49e4backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc9…7c59backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…f196backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 70c | 36.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa45…63ddbacked Yes | 73c | 22.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…b344backed Yes | 75c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a4…7770backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Liverpool end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-27?No won
- Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.