NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2faf48bcb785d333635ed16b9a4c63f4d3b7a6a5978a7484887a94f2b1320fb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 6,500$3,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,185 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 51c | 5,671$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.05 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 4,153$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.73 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Under | 50c | 2,486$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…df31backed Under | 49c | 2,417$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 49c | 955.1$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -7.0wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 553$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.97 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 524$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.76 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 50c | 275$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Over | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 47c | 190.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Over | 53c | 186.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 54c | 82.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 49c | 64.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buccaneers vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5this page
- Buccaneers vs. SeahawksBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)Buccaneers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.