NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fb95762d3d30796b475b580a0b731584352817586834913d0151ee3249f6865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,258 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x843e…e477backed Penguins | 0c | 14,716$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Avalanche | 39c | 10,288$4,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,275.68 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Penguins | 61c | 4,005$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,443.05 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Penguins | 61c | 3,370$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.63 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penguins | 61c | 1,863$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.71 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c665backed Penguins | 63c | 949.79$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penguins | 62c | 657.16$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.44 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Avalanche | 38c | 583.44$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.44 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Penguins | 61c | 493.06$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.77 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Penguins | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Avalanche | 38c | 392.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.65 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Penguins | 13c | 370$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Avalanche | 38c | 367.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.82 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Avalanche | 38c | 276.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.46 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Avalanche | 39c | 267.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.65 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Avalanche | 73c | 204.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Avalanche | 37c | 199.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Penguins | 62c | 162.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Penguins | 61c | 152.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Avalanche | 77c | 142.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +195.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Avalanche | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Penguins | 64c | 124.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche | 36c | 123.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Penguins | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Penguins | 64c | 106.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…629fbacked Penguins | 62c | 80.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Penguins | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…3059backed Avalanche | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Avalanche | 48c | 70.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche | 38c | 68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Penguins | 62c | 64.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Penguins | 62c | 63.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penguins | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Avalanche | 37c | 58.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Penguins | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Avalanche | 39c | 52.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Avalanche | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Avalanche | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked Avalanche | 39c | 50.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Penguins | 61c | 44.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…2c57backed Penguins | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Avalanche | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Penguins | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Avalanche | 36c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Penguins | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Penguins | 61c | 32.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…ad3fbacked Avalanche | 38c | 32.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Penguins | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Avalanche | 37c | 31.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…8616backed Penguins | 62c | 28.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 173 | 43.4%75 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Penguins | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Penguins | 61c | 24.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Penguins | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Penguins | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…2576backed Penguins | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. PenguinsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.