WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fbf0814eee8db04a3650b7c3a5fb9633ba3d30c4ec539345abdb5b1c6e707aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream | 68c | 3,077$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.44 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 32c | 1,841$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.13 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 984$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.86 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 599.98$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 598.04$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.04 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…cff4backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 35c | 286.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 36c | 214.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 179.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Atlanta Dream | 59c | 158.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Phoenix Mercury | 34c | 131.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 126.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Atlanta Dream | 42c | 80.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 80.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Atlanta Dream | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Phoenix Mercury | 37c | 52.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Dream | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…985fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Atlanta Dream | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Atlanta Dream | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Atlanta Dream | 64c | 19.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Atlanta Dream | 61c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Atlanta Dream | 71c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5)this page
- Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix MercuryAtlanta Dream won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Over won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.