WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3547a8c79365f59c939a45d4472dedc7117b6fd5f2d336a67f865c5e67f2f81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 29,549$15,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,365.29 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 27,005$13,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,923.86 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 12,099$6,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,170.73 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 7,046$3,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.92 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 3,400$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…8894backed Atlanta Dream | 76c | 3,000$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 1,960$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.2 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…344fbacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 1,665$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e0…2e6bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 24c | 872.95$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.94 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Phoenix Mercury | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 366.29$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 310$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Phoenix Mercury | 35c | 299.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 270$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.21 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 256$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 130.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5547…3a41backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 122$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 103.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Atlanta Dream | 76c | 92.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 78.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 78.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 71.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Phoenix Mercury | 31c | 51.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 51.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 35.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Atlanta Dream | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 76 | 69.7%53 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 21.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)this page
- Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix MercuryAtlanta Dream won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Over won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.