Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will UMF Stjarnan vs. Ilves Tampere end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fc25f4e5b436bfd047387643b699f877b813ba0eabc4fefdbf8756168fbe2ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 24c | 7,392$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.08 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 76c | 2,200$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 1,492$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.02 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed No | 48c | 1,080$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 991.77$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.02 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 56c | 959.37$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.75 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 76c | 657$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 76c | 657$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 656.64$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.25 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16de…fcc3backed Yes | 72c | 613$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 47c | 527.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 76c | 493.42$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba9…f812backed Yes | 23c | 433.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 49c | 295.26$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 40c | 260.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked No | 45c | 229.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 58c | 176.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…a1b7backed Yes | 66c | 151.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 77c | 116.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 46c | 85.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 48c | 80.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 58c | 72.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 46c | 56.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 40c | 46.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 66c | 45.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed No | 76c | 44.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 38c | 31.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 43c | 30.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UMF Stjarnan vs. Ilves Tampere end in a draw?this page
- Will Ilves Tampere win on 2026-07-23?No won
- Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.