Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909765d9eb7385aab13a6deea684516ab5ab32e9899ef3eb36412e687bc235eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 78c | 3,255$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.37 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 63c | 3,229$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.61 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed No | 22c | 2,925$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.88 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…4c80backed Yes | 76c | 2,192$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…35b8backed Yes | 79c | 1,899$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 61c | 1,776$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.51 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 41c | 1,711$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.03 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 27c | 1,671$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.75 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 62c | 1,331$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.91 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.99 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 1,087$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 34c | 1,012$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.36 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba9…f812backed Yes | 39c | 956.51$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.51 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 60c | 952.14$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.73 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 25c | 817.78$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.38 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 62c | 806$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.72 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 62c | 806$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.72 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 69c | 774.9$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.42 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 43c | 692.86$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.93 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 25c | 663.17$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 69c | 660.69$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.06 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 37c | 643.54$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.91 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 18c | 617.36$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 605.01$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.33 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 22c | 593.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 68c | 578$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.3 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 38c | 491.92$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.99 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 68c | 441.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.17 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 25c | 374.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 351.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 65c | 232.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 36c | 210.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…994dbacked No | 41c | 198.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked Yes | 76c | 196.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 27c | 193.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.58 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 34c | 171.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 25c | 165.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 35c | 154.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 66c | 154.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 65c | 139.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 41c | 111$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 68c | 99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Yes | 63c | 98.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 63c | 98.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed No | 60c | 96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 38c | 91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Yes | 33c | 86.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 38c | 71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…9e4bbacked Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a6…ef29backed Yes | 78c | 51.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…7a56backed Yes | 78c | 51.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked Yes | 38c | 44.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 62c | 43.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed No | 63c | 29.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 57c | 28.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 62c | 28.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 54c | 25.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 64c | 25.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…fba9backed Yes | 80c | 24.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-23?this page
- Will Ilves Tampere win on 2026-07-23?No won
- Will UMF Stjarnan vs. Ilves Tampere end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.