Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tatjana Maria
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe836688df723a7a3fe3d789f3c48bb7ab053ca2c473c2b70a3800317c34e73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sorana Cirsteaof Sorana Cirstea, Tatjana Maria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Tatjana Maria | 15c | 8,536$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.21 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tatjana Maria | 1c | 6,751$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tatjana Maria | 10c | 3,518$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.64 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Tatjana Maria | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tatjana Maria | 9c | 2,304$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.68 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Tatjana Maria | 6c | 2,141$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a0…da35backed Tatjana Maria | 14c | 1,604$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 479 | 46.3%222 W · 257 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Tatjana Maria | 14c | 1,404$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.81 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Tatjana Maria | 5c | 1,404$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Tatjana Maria | 13c | 1,249$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.42 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Tatjana Maria | 5c | 712.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Tatjana Maria | 10c | 626.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…b0b5backed Tatjana Maria | 12c | 520.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Tatjana Maria | 5c | 500.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…3f91backed Tatjana Maria | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Tatjana Maria | 6c | 482.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tatjana Maria | 13c | 449.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Tatjana Maria | 11c | 416$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Tatjana Maria | 11c | 415.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740f…bf3cbacked Tatjana Maria | 3c | 402.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Tatjana Maria | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 279 | 35.8%100 W · 179 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…613abacked Tatjana Maria | 4c | 321.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Tatjana Maria | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Tatjana Maria | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Tatjana Maria | 5c | 273.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Tatjana Maria | 21c | 271.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Tatjana Maria | 14c | 254$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 347 | 44.4%154 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Tatjana Maria | 20c | 251.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 609 | 43.3%264 W · 345 L | -24.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tatjana Maria | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tatjana Maria | 9c | 201.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Tatjana Maria | 12c | 199.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Tatjana Maria | 12c | 184$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…5c9fbacked Tatjana Maria | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Tatjana Maria | 9c | 147.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 175 | 52.6%92 W · 83 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Tatjana Maria | 11c | 147$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Tatjana Maria | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Tatjana Maria | 20c | 125.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Tatjana Maria | 12c | 121.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Tatjana Maria | 10c | 111.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 439 | 51.9%228 W · 211 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Tatjana Maria | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…7ad1backed Tatjana Maria | 12c | 99.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Sorana Cirstea | 80c | 96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Tatjana Maria | 12c | 94.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tatjana Mariathis page
- Cirstea vs. Maria: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Cirstea vs. Maria: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Cirstea vs. Maria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5)Maria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.