TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,137 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…77c1backed Athletics60c499.99$300 inLost-$299.992,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Seattle Mariners40c340.03$136 inWon+$204.021,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners40c331.86$133 inWon+$199.073,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd190…e445backed Athletics60c331.67$199 inLost-$19916456.7%93 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics58c237.34$138 inLost-$137.663,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners42c233.84$98 inWon+$135.6319335.8%69 W · 124 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners41c144.27$59 inWon+$85.2766448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics59c125.1$74 inLost-$73.811,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics22c93.93$21 inLost-$20.812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Mariners40c76$30 inWon+$45.61,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners39c72$28 inWon+$43.923,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Athletics61c63$38 inLost-$38.1672154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Athletics61c54$33 inLost-$32.7646854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners40c50$20 inWon+$301,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners41c50$21 inWon+$29.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners40c47$19 inWon+$28.21,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Athletics59c40$24 inLost-$23.624946.2%115 W · 134 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.