MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5f5bc0ea18e2296d1da615d41e73f5b191092782469d694f208b979aeffa3a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 30,815$16,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,083.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 18,512$8,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,141.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 9,787$4,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,743.05 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Over | 52c | 7,111$3,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,413.29 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 51c | 3,917$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.33 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 3,574$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.59 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 2,811$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 2,461$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.55 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…8688backed Under | 57c | 1,759$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 1,736$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Over | 52c | 1,731$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.77 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 50c | 1,714$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.22 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 50c | 1,705$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.31 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 50c | 1,110$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.61 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 56c | 994.99$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.36 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 51c | 966.22$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.69 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 51c | 843.83$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.46 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 51c | 843.83$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.46 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 53c | 662.13$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.16 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 51c | 634.6$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.87 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 60c | 615.83$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.33 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 51c | 580.62$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.37 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 53c | 490.35$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.06 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 455.09$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 48c | 441.65$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.66 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 46c | 411.1$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.64 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 59c | 410.94$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.12 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 345.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.8 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 284.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 49c | 210.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Over | 53c | 198.16$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 49c | 152.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 149.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Over | 51c | 125.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 123.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 51c | 115.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 52c | 104.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 54c | 92.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 85.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Over | 52c | 84.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…13c0backed Under | 33c | 83.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Over | 53c | 83.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 54c | 78.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 52c | 75.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 48c | 61.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 57.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 42c | 55.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 47c | 53.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…fc85backed Over | 45c | 53.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…b49abacked Over | 57c | 50.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 51c | 37.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…ec86backed Under | 56c | 35.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 49c | 34.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 30.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 50c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5a…074dbacked Under | 55c | 26.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…289abacked Over | 49c | 22.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…5b34backed Under | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-7.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.