MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf680f5302e35f836ff6f82cc1851f1a0278b8e5be67c2c5100638ee3bb22eda4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 13,329$5,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,735.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…3d6fbacked Under | 1c | 8,100$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 5,467$2,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.96 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 2,772$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 59c | 2,352$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.73 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 60c | 2,149$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.95 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b3b5backed Under | 48c | 2,047$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 59c | 2,018$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.57 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 41c | 1,840$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.6 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 2c | 790$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 697.98$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 613$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.41 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 491.82$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.58 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 54c | 424.39$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 54c | 424.39$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 58c | 383.38$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.75 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 42c | 378$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.24 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 56c | 335.71$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 41c | 238.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.19 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 190.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.81 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Over | 51c | 181.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 168.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 99.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 38c | 66.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 60c | 61.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 60.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…9d29backed Under | 79c | 50.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 41c | 49.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 58c | 47.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…17aabacked Under | 41c | 41.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…3488backed Under | 48c | 39.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Over | 58c | 36.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 44c | 29.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…5b34backed Under | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-7.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.