MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7e5048dec4233dda3b07c862592af7e066473c013662f520149752c03d2962d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 30,794$20,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,159.65 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 35c | 12,103$4,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 34c | 5,798$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.85 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Athletics | 34c | 5,720$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.72 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 3,176$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.48 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Athletics | 31c | 1,314$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.88 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Athletics | 36c | 1,205$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.92 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 31c | 1,203$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.25 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 31c | 1,123$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Athletics | 31c | 1,112$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.57 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 897.92$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 35c | 774$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Athletics | 31c | 635.2$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.29 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Athletics | 31c | 540.65$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 34c | 464.61$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 422.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.53 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics | 31c | 363.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Athletics | 31c | 363.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Athletics | 31c | 363.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Athletics | 32c | 353.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Athletics | 31c | 242.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Seattle Mariners | 58c | 231.82$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Athletics | 31c | 212.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Athletics | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Athletics | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Athletics | 31c | 152.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics | 37c | 138.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Athletics | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 31c | 89.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Athletics | 31c | 82.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…1323backed Athletics | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Seattle Mariners | 16c | 66.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Athletics | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Athletics | 39c | 61.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Athletics | 34c | 57.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Athletics | 32c | 57.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 39c | 52.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Athletics | 31c | 51.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 49.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Athletics | 31c | 47.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Athletics | 31c | 47.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Athletics | 25c | 45.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…241cbacked Athletics | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…4fbabacked Athletics | 54c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Athletics | 39c | 31.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 40c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…ec86backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 24.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 22.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Athletics | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9068…a7b6backed Athletics | 58c | 17.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-7.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.