MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2924ad9ce62b75380c97f8d92991a8bdca77eb0a36a9f910128c1375a2cc0f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 15,857$8,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,182.3 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 13,030$6,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,736.98 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 47c | 8,471$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,470.71 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 2,109$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.67 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 52c | 1,886$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.78 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 743$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.48 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 78c | 738.06$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.38 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 69c | 726.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 679.19$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.07 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Under | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 33c | 123.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed Under | 51c | 99.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 17c | 98.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Under | 49c | 91.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 19c | 79.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 45.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 67c | 41.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 49c | 41.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…8786backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 35.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…50f6backed Under | 47c | 31.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 20.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-7.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.