TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,684
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,684 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b1e…65c1backed Under60c2,600$1,560 inWon+$1,04029948.8%146 W · 153 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over40c1,000$400 inLost-$4002,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over36c737.99$265 inLost-$265.128,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under70c428.57$300 inWon+$128.572,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over40c420$168 inLost-$1681,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Over40c400$160 inLost-$1602,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over40c382.98$153 inLost-$153.1911,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69cc…2e44backed Under66c378.79$250 inWon+$128.792867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over30c347$104 inLost-$104.313,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over13c311.16$41 inLost-$40.812,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over40c110.02$44 inLost-$44.013,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over30c84.68$25 inLost-$25.391,72850.4%871 W · 857 L+57.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x260b…aa9ebacked Over26c81.3$21 inLost-$20.9512555.2%69 W · 56 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under74c77$57 inWon+$20.088,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under67c47.46$32 inWon+$15.566,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over49c47.05$23 inLost-$23.039,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under49c43.47$21 inWon+$22.242,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under50c40$20 inWon+$208950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661a…ddc7backed Under60c33.33$20 inWon+$13.332552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under40c25$10 inWon+$1546557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…aa69backed Under78c23.08$18 inWon+$5.081855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Under54c19.46$11 inWon+$8.8813946.8%65 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.