MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e2321bd8544687bff2b85ecb77a601c21896e6a60779725c8a073858817da8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 52c | 24,998$12,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,999.04 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 23,463$11,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,262.14 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…1133backed Over | 47c | 20,660$9,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,868.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 55c | 7,221$3,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,971.42 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 7,082$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,067.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 56c | 7,071$3,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,964.95 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 51c | 5,166$2,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.66 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 4,074$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 2,380$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 2,150$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 2,086$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.27 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 1,866$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Under | 52c | 1,840$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.8 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…8cd5backed Under | 49c | 1,730$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 48c | 1,493$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.48 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 58c | 1,431$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 58c | 1,431$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 799.98$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 731.28$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.33 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 58c | 692.07$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.08 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 29c | 552.44$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.79 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Under | 52c | 551.85$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.64 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 61c | 548$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.59 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 519.46$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…3d6fbacked Under | 79c | 374.06$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 282.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 70c | 246.21$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.4 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 213$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 204.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 52c | 200.09$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 159.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fa…3262backed Under | 64c | 137.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 37c | 134.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Under | 66c | 133.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 44c | 113.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 43c | 113.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 44c | 107.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 100.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 48c | 80.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 48c | 70.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Under | 30c | 63.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 50c | 55.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 32c | 55.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…4fbabacked Under | 76c | 53.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf941…31ddbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 40.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…ec86backed Under | 49c | 40.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 44c | 40.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…ae63backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 70c | 31.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 30.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 49c | 29.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…95afbacked Under | 69c | 28.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 47c | 28.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 56c | 25.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 68c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Under | 59c | 21.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-6.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-7.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.