Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fffeb085b83bbc6ddbdec7bf7b15c6077ae17cd2d416b86cbea84323a500871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Rinderknech, Fokina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Rinderknech | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Fokina | 57c | 5,629$3,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,189 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Fokina | 61c | 5,624$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,453.1 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Rinderknech | 45c | 5,149$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,855.82 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Rinderknech | 71c | 3,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Rinderknech | 20c | 2,702$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.64 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Rinderknech | 45c | 2,205$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.93 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Fokina | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Rinderknech | 52c | 1,721$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.75 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Fokina | 35c | 1,610$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.8 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Fokina | 22c | 1,427$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.7 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rinderknech | 60c | 1,410$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.35 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Fokina | 80c | 1,300$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Rinderknech | 22c | 1,116$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.75 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Fokina | 56c | 937.8$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.62 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Rinderknech | 20c | 800$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Fokina | 56c | 715.25$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Fokina | 66c | 702.66$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.4 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Rinderknech | 37c | 679.46$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.96 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Rinderknech | 32c | 632.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.81 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Rinderknech | 20c | 625$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Rinderknech | 21c | 600$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fokina | 55c | 555.71$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.76 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rinderknech | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rinderknech | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…606cbacked Rinderknech | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Rinderknech | 18c | 500$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.57 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Fokina | 59c | 420$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Rinderknech | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed Rinderknech | 51c | 396.94$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.5 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Fokina | 38c | 348$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Rinderknech | 31c | 318.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.44 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Rinderknech | 21c | 316$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.72 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Rinderknech | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Rinderknech | 20c | 277$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Fokina | 55c | 265$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.45 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fokina | 80c | 262.74$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.49 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Rinderknech | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fokina | 49c | 204.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Fokina | 59c | 185.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Fokina | 49c | 183.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Rinderknech | 33c | 157.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Fokina | 58c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Fokina | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Fokina | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Rinderknech | 16c | 126.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Fokina | 64c | 107.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Rinderknech | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Fokina | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rinderknech | 32c | 77.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Fokina | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Fokina | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Rinderknech | 19c | 55.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Rinderknech | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Fokina | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Fokina | 63c | 41.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…9b0bbacked Rinderknech | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Fokina | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Rinderknech | 39c | 26.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…f067backed Fokina | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.