South American Leagues · resolved market
CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3003d1b4a705f96f1091cca3c1412d077fb23ccf0cd73614ef544c16b6b9d821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 0c | 32,760$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 79c | 13,357$10,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 25c | 3,465$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.1 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 21c | 1,785$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 22c | 1,778$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.82 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 77c | 1,747$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.8 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 21c | 1,676$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.96 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 22c | 1,400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 1c | 1,205$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 15c | 660.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 21c | 511$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 21c | 509$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 21c | 181.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Under | 80c | 123.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 22c | 102.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 74c | 91.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 80c | 86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 21c | 73.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 22c | 71.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 80c | 51.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 76c | 50.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 80c | 48.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 74c | 42.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…34d6backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5this page
- CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: CSyD Macará O/U 2.5Under won
- CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CSyD Macará vs. Santos FC: Santos FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: CSyD Macará (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: CSyD Macará (-2.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)CSyD Macará won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)CSyD Macará won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.